#24Mohamed Ibrahim

RB·Minnesota·2022 2020 20182.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Mohamed Ibrahim is a 3-year Featured Back for Minnesota. Mohamed's 2018 season ranks in the 18th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 198 plays — a developing rate for the RB. Mohamed's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Mohamed Ibrahim's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1161 Rush yards9 Rush TD202 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

4 Receptions26 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.5 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns19 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency18
Volume87
Explosiveness54
Consistency76
Receiving10

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)18th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.62 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -20).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNew Mexico State	W48-10	-20.2	9	101	11.2	0	—	—	—	0.62
4	@Maryland	L13-42	3.0	26	95	3.7	0	—	—	—	0.13
6	vsIowa	L31-48	13.3	13	62	4.8	0	2	1	0	0.06
7	@Ohio State	L14-30	24.1	23	158	6.9	2	—	—	—	0.49
8	@Nebraska	L28-53	5.4	18	49	2.7	1	—	—	—	-0.11
10	@Illinois	L31-55	-7.9	18	98	5.4	2	—	—	—	0.40
11	vsPurdue	W41-10	6.5	18	155	8.6	0	—	—	—	0.38
12	vsNorthwestern	L14-24	1.9	20	98	4.9	1	2	25	0	0.26
13	@Wisconsin	W37-15	15.5	26	121	4.7	1	—	—	—	0.10
1	vsGeorgia Tech	W34-10	0.3	31	224	7.2	2	—	—	—	0.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

30.6%

Passing plays

1.7%

Rushing plays

54.0%

Standard downs

32.7%

Passing downs

25.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.22
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.30 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2022 · 29 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Minnesota	2.4	0.290	—	60.9
2020	Minnesota	6.7	0.380	+0.09	80.9
2022	Minnesota	5.3	0.330	-0.05	103.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.