#8Michael Carter

RB·North Carolina·20202.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Michael Carter is a Explosive Back for North Carolina. Michael's 2020 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 175 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Michael Carter's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

1245 Rush yards9 Rush TD156 Carries8.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions267 Rec yards2 Rec TD10.7 Yards/rec

Returns

8 Kick returns156 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency63
Volume68
Explosiveness100
Consistency74
Receiving65

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Western Carolina.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsSyracuse	W31-6	-9.8	7	78	11.1	0	6	60	0	0.54
5	@Boston College	W26-22	0.9	16	121	7.6	0	1	6	0	0.56
6	vsVirginia Tech	W56-45	13.7	17	214	12.6	2	1	15	0	0.91
7	@Florida State	L28-31	-4.9	17	65	3.8	0	2	5	0	-0.04
8	vsNC State	W48-21	0.0	17	106	6.2	1	2	46	0	0.44
9	@Virginia	L41-44	0.9	9	64	7.1	0	2	-4	0	-0.13
10	@Duke	W56-24	-4.2	17	85	5.0	1	3	46	1	0.44
11	vsWake Forest	W59-53	0.8	16	74	4.6	0	4	55	1	-0.01
13	vsNotre Dame	L17-31	21.0	8	57	7.1	0	1	23	0	0.17
14	vsWestern Carolina	W49-9	—	8	73	9.1	3	1	6	0	0.96
15	@Miami	W62-26	12.8	24	308	12.8	2	2	9	0	0.59

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.8%

Passing plays

8.5%

Rushing plays

36.2%

Standard downs

27.3%

Passing downs

13.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.38
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.56 / 0.37

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.