#7Max Johnson

QB·North Carolina·2025 2021

Max Johnson is a Dual-Threat QB for North Carolina. Max's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 55 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Max Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

54/87 Comp/Att437 Pass yards2 Pass TD0 INT62.1% Comp %

Rushing

38 Rush yards0 Rush TD9 Carries4.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat77
Consistency58
Clutch23

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency58th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Peak game: 0.74 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs TCU (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTCU	L14-48	8.3	9/11	103	1	95.8	—	—	0.74
4	@UCF	L9-34	-1.2	11/19	67	1	80.7	—	—	0.04
6	vsClemson	L10-38	9.5	26/42	213	0	29.7	10	0	0.08
14	@NC State	L19-42	4.8	8/15	54	0	47.0	28	0	0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

41.6%

Passing plays

62.3%

Rushing plays

9.3%

Standard downs

37.6%

Passing downs

50.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.04
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.06 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.