#4Keon Coleman

WR·Florida State·2023

Keon Coleman is a Red Zone Weapon WR for Florida State. Keon's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 79 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Keon Coleman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving

50 Receptions658 Rec yards11 Rec TD13.2 Yards/rec

Returns

25 Punt returns300 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume30
Explosiveness41
Consistency62
Pass-Down40

Player type

Red Zone Weapon WR

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.36 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.97 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Duke (SP+ 9).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
JoJo Natson	Utah State	2014	51	0.390	1.0	19.9
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2024	66	0.340	0.7	22.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsLSU	W45-24	19.1	9	122	13.6	3	41	0.88
2	vsSouthern Miss	W66-13	-14.4	3	48	16.0	1	34	0.16
3	@Boston College	W31-29	-5.9	—	—	—	—	—	-0.38
4	@Clemson	W31-24	10.5	5	86	17.2	2	38	0.66
6	vsVirginia Tech	W39-17	5.8	3	22	7.3	0	14	0.16
7	vsSyracuse	W41-3	-4.4	9	140	15.6	1	58	0.89
8	vsDuke	W38-20	9.4	2	54	27.0	0	30	1.97
9	@Wake Forest	W41-16	-7.9	7	66	9.4	2	29	0.13
11	vsMiami	W27-20	9.6	4	24	6.0	1	8	0.12
12	vsNorth Alabama	W58-13	—	3	53	17.7	1	24	0.61
13	@Florida	W24-15	6.8	1	24	24.0	0	24	1.91
14	vsLouisville	W16-6	8.0	4	19	4.8	0	9	-0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

10.6%

Passing plays

20.5%

Rushing plays

0.5%

Standard downs

10.4%

Passing downs

10.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.44
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / -0.50

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).