#6Keagan Johnson

WR·New Mexico·2025

Keagan Johnson is a Slot Specialist WR for New Mexico. Keagan's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 99 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Keagan Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

59 Receptions754 Rec yards3 Rec TD12.8 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume37
Explosiveness39
Consistency62
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.24 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs UNLV (SP+ 4).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2024	66	0.340	0.7	22.4
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Malik Dunner	Ball State	2017	76	0.290	0.4	22.0
Jafar Armstrong	Notre Dame	2018	79	0.320	1.0	25.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Michigan	L17-34	12.4	7	38	5.4	0	14	0.10
2	vsIdaho State	W32-22	—	1	8	8.0	0	8	0.14
5	vsNew Mexico State	W38-20	-15.5	5	117	23.4	1	48	1.05
6	@San José State	L28-35	-14.3	11	145	13.2	0	24	0.61
7	@Boise State	L25-41	3.1	5	38	7.6	1	21	-0.13
8	vsNevada	W24-22	-13.4	5	26	5.2	0	10	-0.19
9	vsUtah State	W33-14	-3.1	3	25	8.3	0	16	0.03
10	@UNLV	W40-35	4.3	6	158	26.3	1	80	1.24
12	vsColorado State	W20-17	-15.6	5	65	13.0	0	25	0.46
13	@Air Force	W20-3	-3.2	4	55	13.8	0	20	0.18
14	vsSan Diego State	W23-17	6.7	3	37	12.3	0	17	0.35
20	vsMinnesota	L17-20	1.5	4	42	10.5	0	16	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

13.1%

Passing plays

27.1%

Rushing plays

0.5%

Standard downs

10.3%

Passing downs

19.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.62
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.00

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).