#5Ke'Shawn Vaughn

RB·Vanderbilt·2019 20184.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Ke'Shawn Vaughn is a 2-year Explosive Back for Vanderbilt. Ke'Shawn's 2018 season ranks in the 90th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 173 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ke'Shawn Vaughn's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1244 Rush yards12 Rush TD157 Carries7.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

13 Receptions170 Rec yards2 Rec TD13.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency90
Volume62
Explosiveness98
Consistency78
Receiving38

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)90th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.36 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.20 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Baylor (SP+ 2).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Devon Johnson	Marshall	2014	208	0.520	6.0	108.2
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6
Tyjae Spears	Tulane	2022	234	0.450	5.7	105.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsMiddle Tennessee	W35-7	-3.8	9	37	4.1	0	1	12	0	0.22
2	vsNevada	W41-10	-0.5	11	93	8.5	2	2	6	0	0.41
3	@Notre Dame	L17-22	20.7	10	54	5.4	1	1	2	0	0.18
4	vsSouth Carolina	L14-37	14.9	9	30	3.3	1	2	36	0	0.19
5	vsTennessee State	W31-27	—	17	146	8.6	1	—	—	—	0.26
6	@Georgia	L13-41	32.9	9	79	8.8	0	—	—	—	0.29
7	vsFlorida	L27-37	23.0	7	56	8.0	0	1	75	1	0.98
9	@Arkansas	W45-31	4.5	26	172	6.6	3	—	—	—	0.41
11	@Missouri	L28-33	20.8	15	182	12.1	1	2	14	1	0.58
12	vsOle Miss	W36-29	9.8	25	127	5.1	1	2	-8	0	0.07
13	vsTennessee	W38-13	5.5	6	25	4.2	0	2	33	0	0.48
1	vsBaylor	L38-45	2.0	13	243	18.7	2	—	—	—	1.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.7%

Passing plays

4.5%

Rushing plays

40.4%

Standard downs

23.6%

Passing downs

17.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.36
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.55 / 0.40

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Vanderbilt	4.4	0.520	—	77.5
2019	Vanderbilt	1.9	0.260	-0.26	50.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.