#25Ka'Deem Carey

RB·Arizona·20133.1 pts line value1st Round

Ka'Deem Carey is a Featured Back for Arizona. Ka'Deem's 2013 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 326 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ka'Deem Carey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Rushing

1885 Rush yards19 Rush TD349 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

26 Receptions173 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency35
Volume100
Explosiveness48
Consistency59
Receiving32

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)35th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency59th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.26 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.44 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UNLV (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Jeremy McNichols	Boise State	2016	340	0.330	4.7	112.2
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	@UNLV	W58-13	-10.1	16	171	10.7	2	—	—	—	0.44
3	vsUTSA	W38-13	-6.6	27	128	4.7	2	2	33	0	0.33
5	@Washington	L13-31	20.5	30	132	4.4	1	4	49	0	0.35
7	@USC	L31-38	22.5	21	138	6.6	0	6	36	0	0.39
8	vsUtah	W35-24	11.8	39	232	5.9	1	3	1	0	-0.01
9	@Colorado	W44-20	-0.7	23	119	5.2	4	3	12	0	0.13
10	@California	W33-28	-8.7	32	152	4.8	0	—	—	—	-0.18
11	vsUCLA	L26-31	20.0	28	149	5.3	1	1	2	0	-0.10
12	vsWashington State	L17-24	8.2	26	132	5.1	1	6	45	1	-0.02
13	vsOregon	W42-16	28.7	48	206	4.3	4	1	-5	0	0.10
14	@Arizona State	L21-58	17.5	32	157	4.9	1	—	—	—	0.08
1	vsBoston College	W42-19	7.1	27	169	6.3	2	—	—	—	0.18

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

38.1%

Passing plays

6.7%

Rushing plays

58.7%

Standard downs

43.2%

Passing downs

24.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.22
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.50 / 0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.