#6Jermar Jefferson

RB·Oregon State·20203.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jermar Jefferson is a Featured Back for Oregon State. Jermar's 2020 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 144 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jermar Jefferson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

858 Rush yards7 Rush TD133 Carries6.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

9 Receptions67 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.4 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns32 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency33
Volume97
Explosiveness70
Consistency64
Receiving29

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.33 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.59 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Washington State (SP+ 4).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
10	vsWashington State	L28-38	4.2	21	120	5.7	3	5	50	0	0.59
11	@Washington	L21-27	11.7	23	133	5.8	1	1	1	0	0.14
12	vsCalifornia	W31-27	2.4	18	196	10.9	1	—	—	—	0.36
13	vsOregon	W41-38	18.1	29	226	7.8	2	2	9	0	0.31
15	vsStanford	L24-27	1.6	18	80	4.4	0	1	7	0	-0.10
16	vsArizona State	L33-46	11.4	24	103	4.3	0	—	—	—	-0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

34.1%

Passing plays

5.4%

Rushing plays

60.5%

Standard downs

36.8%

Passing downs

26.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.11
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 6 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.