#19Eric Willis III

WR·UTEP·2025

Eric Willis III is a Versatile WR for UTEP. Eric's 2025 season produced 3.3 total EPA across 49 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Eric Willis III's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

27 Receptions290 Rec yards2 Rec TD10.7 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns45 KR yards0 KR TD14 Punt returns88 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency17
Volume21
Explosiveness25
Consistency3
Pass-Down78

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)17th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency3th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.50 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.65 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Sam Houston (SP+ -28).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Utah State	L16-28	-3.1	5	35	7.0	0	14	0.52
2	vsUT Martin	W42-17	—	3	25	8.3	0	12	-0.13
3	@Texas	L10-27	16.2	1	4	4.0	0	4	-0.32
4	vsUL Monroe	L25-31	-21.6	2	41	20.5	0	32	-0.04
5	vsLouisiana Tech	L11-30	-1.3	3	18	6.0	0	8	-0.27
7	vsLiberty	L8-19	-9.0	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	vsSam Houston	W35-17	-27.8	1	43	43.0	0	43	1.65
10	@Kennesaw State	L20-33	-5.4	1	36	36.0	0	36	0.45
11	vsJacksonville State	L27-30	-6.7	2	20	10.0	1	19	0.28
12	@Missouri State	L24-38	-10.7	5	45	9.0	0	15	0.64
14	@Delaware	L31-61	-10.9	4	23	5.8	1	9	-0.79

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.3%

Passing plays

12.6%

Rushing plays

1.0%

Standard downs

7.4%

Passing downs

7.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.18
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.22 / -3.49

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).