#5Derrius Guice

RB·LSU·2017 20162.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Derrius Guice is a 2-year Featured Back for LSU. Derrius's 2017 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 257 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Derrius Guice's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1251 Rush yards11 Rush TD237 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

18 Receptions124 Rec yards2 Rec TD6.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency15
Volume90
Explosiveness46
Consistency57
Receiving41

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.22 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Ole Miss (SP+ 12).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsBYU	W27-0	-7.4	27	122	4.5	2	1	4	0	0.32
2	vsChattanooga	W45-10	—	15	102	6.8	2	—	—	—	0.41
3	@Mississippi State	L7-37	16.0	15	76	5.1	0	1	3	0	0.04
4	vsSyracuse	W35-26	4.0	8	14	1.8	1	—	—	—	-0.16
6	@Florida	W17-16	10.1	17	50	2.9	0	2	21	0	-0.08
7	vsAuburn	W27-23	24.7	20	71	3.5	0	1	5	0	-0.12
8	@Ole Miss	W40-24	11.6	22	276	12.5	1	1	9	0	0.79
10	@Alabama	L10-24	33.5	19	71	3.7	0	5	29	0	0.08
11	vsArkansas	W33-10	2.1	21	147	7.0	3	—	—	—	0.43
12	@Tennessee	W30-10	1.2	24	97	4.0	1	3	11	0	0.04
13	vsTexas A&M	W45-21	9.4	28	127	4.5	1	1	18	0	0.25
1	vsNotre Dame	L17-21	20.8	21	98	4.7	0	3	24	2	0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.5%

Passing plays

7.1%

Rushing plays

47.0%

Standard downs

37.7%

Passing downs

16.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.19
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.59 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	LSU	4.4	0.420	—	82.7
2017	LSU	2.1	0.250	-0.17	58.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.