#9Dane Evans

QB·Tulsa·2016 20158.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Dane Evans is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Tulsa. Dane's 2015 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 563 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dane Evans's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

305/485 Comp/Att4332 Pass yards25 Pass TD8 INT62.9% Comp %

Rushing

-9 Rush yards2 Rush TD96 Carries-0.1 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts49 Punt yards49.0 Yards/punt49 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency20
Volume100
Dual-Threat58
Consistency81
Clutch87

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.73 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Tulane (SP+ -14).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsFlorida Atlantic	W47-44	-9.8	21/33	424	2	2	79.8	-8	1	0.56
2	@New Mexico	W40-21	-8.7	16/30	321	2	0	76.8	-13	0	0.56
3	@Oklahoma	L38-52	22.7	34/51	427	4	0	83.2	2	0	0.54
5	vsHouston	L24-38	6.2	26/44	326	0	1	52.0	10	0	0.11
6	vsUL Monroe	W34-24	-14.7	28/44	341	2	0	63.4	6	0	0.36
7	@East Carolina	L17-30	-0.5	19/40	288	1	1	8.6	-4	0	-0.16
8	vsMemphis	L42-66	8.0	24/36	421	4	1	63.4	-10	0	0.30
9	@SMU	W40-31	-17.5	19/27	240	0	0	73.8	11	0	0.37
10	vsUCF	W45-30	-15.5	10/18	150	2	2	61.2	12	0	0.26
11	@Cincinnati	L38-49	5.3	30/49	375	2	0	57.1	-5	0	0.27
12	vsNavy	L21-44	12.1	32/37	278	0	0	61.5	-19	0	0.23
13	@Tulane	W45-34	-14.0	19/32	367	3	1	93.4	-9	0	0.73
1	vsVirginia Tech	L52-55	11.4	27/44	374	3	0	70.0	18	1	0.48

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.8%

Passing plays

98.5%

Rushing plays

10.9%

Standard downs

43.4%

Passing downs

72.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.47
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Tulsa	8.6	0.429	—	260.1
2016	Tulsa	7.9	0.490	+0.06	210.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.