#13Chubba Purdy

QB·Nevada·2025

Chubba Purdy is a Dual-Threat QB for Nevada. Chubba's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 162 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chubba Purdy's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

44/86 Comp/Att577 Pass yards3 Pass TD8 INT51.2% Comp %

Rushing

530 Rush yards3 Rush TD100 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

9 Receptions59 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.6 Yards/rec

Punting

1 Punts44 Punt yards44.0 Yards/punt44 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume76
Dual-Threat76
Consistency0
Clutch25

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.13 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs San Diego State (SP+ 7).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Penn State	L11-46	18.1	7/15	97	0	1	38.3	55	0	0.09
2	vsSacramento State	W20-17	—	12/21	144	0	2	17.2	115	1	-0.07
3	vsMiddle Tennessee	L13-14	-16.0	5/7	88	1	1	49.0	46	0	0.32
4	@Western Kentucky	L16-31	1.6	16/30	165	0	2	31.0	60	1	-0.02
6	@Fresno State	L17-20	1.8	0/4	0	0	2	0.1	16	0	-1.04
7	vsSan Diego State	L10-44	6.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.13
8	@New Mexico	L22-24	0.9	—	—	—	—	—	1	0	0.10
9	vsBoise State	L3-24	3.1	1/1	3	0	0	6.5	2	0	-0.15
11	@Utah State	L14-51	-3.1	3/7	80	2	0	42.4	45	0	-0.04
12	vsSan José State	W55-10	-14.3	—	—	—	—	—	51	1	0.53
13	@Wyoming	W13-7	-11.3	—	—	—	—	—	66	0	0.11
14	vsUNLV	L17-42	4.3	0/1	0	0	0	67.4	73	0	0.40

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.6%

Passing plays

31.2%

Rushing plays

23.5%

Standard downs

25.3%

Passing downs

29.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.06
Passing downs: -0.01
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.15 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).