#12Charles Ross

RB·Rice·20131.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Charles Ross is a Explosive Back for Rice. Charles's 2013 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 186 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Charles Ross's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Rushing

1280 Rush yards15 Rush TD211 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

5 Receptions37 Rec yards1 Rec TD7.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs RB peers

Efficiency65
Volume66
Explosiveness62
Consistency47
Receiving11

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency47th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.46 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Houston (SP+ 5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Texas A&M	L31-52	20.4	19	107	5.6	2	2	24	1	0.29
3	vsKansas	W23-14	-9.7	27	157	5.8	1	2	-1	0	0.02
4	vsHouston	L26-31	4.9	9	55	6.1	1	1	14	0	0.46
7	@UTSA	W27-21	-6.6	11	59	5.4	0	—	—	—	-0.25
8	@New Mexico State	W45-19	-35.1	26	167	6.4	1	—	—	—	0.11
9	vsUTEP	W45-7	-28.9	21	152	7.2	1	—	—	—	0.34
10	@North Texas	L16-28	1.0	18	101	5.6	0	—	—	—	0.06
12	vsLouisiana Tech	W52-14	-16.8	27	215	8.0	5	—	—	—	0.45
13	@UAB	W37-34	-20.8	10	50	5.0	1	—	—	—	-0.07
14	vsTulane	W17-13	-8.0	15	80	5.3	0	—	—	—	0.10
15	vsMarshall	W41-24	8.3	18	109	6.1	2	—	—	—	0.31
1	vsMississippi State	L7-44	10.7	10	28	2.8	1	—	—	—	-0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.2%

Passing plays

1.4%

Rushing plays

34.9%

Standard downs

26.8%

Passing downs

15.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.31
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.