#12Carson Strong

QB·Nevada·2021 202010.3 pts line value

Carson Strong is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Nevada. Carson's 2020 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 385 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carson Strong's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

247/353 Comp/Att2843 Pass yards26 Pass TD4 INT70.0% Comp %

Rushing

-95 Rush yards0 Rush TD33 Carries-2.9 Yards/carry

Punting

3 Punts101 Punt yards33.7 Yards/punt41 Long2 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency68
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency86
Clutch96

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs UNLV (SP+ -20).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	EPA/play
8	vsWyoming	W37-34	-2.5	37/50	405	3	0	-26	0.33
9	@UNLV	W37-19	-19.7	21/27	350	2	0	-18	0.65
10	vsUtah State	W34-9	-16.7	36/52	411	3	0	-33	0.43
11	@New Mexico	W27-20	-15.0	24/38	336	3	1	-11	0.27
12	vsSan Diego State	W26-21	5.3	31/46	288	2	1	8	0.25
13	@Hawai'i	L21-24	-7.1	20/25	168	2	0	-2	0.30
14	vsFresno State	W37-26	-5.5	23/39	354	5	2	-22	0.27
15	@San José State	L20-30	0.1	33/48	260	1	0	4	0.11
1	vsTulane	W38-27	4.2	22/28	271	5	0	5	0.61

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

63.2%

Passing plays

98.9%

Rushing plays

7.2%

Standard downs

55.1%

Passing downs

82.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / -0.39

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 21 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Nevada	10.3	0.520	—	204.4
2021	Nevada	10.7	0.560	+0.04	298.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.