#22Alexander Mattison

RB·Boise State·2018 20172.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Alexander Mattison is a 2-year Featured Back for Boise State. Alexander's 2018 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 308 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Alexander Mattison's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

1412 Rush yards17 Rush TD302 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

27 Receptions173 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.4 Yards/rec

Returns

4 Kick returns87 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency8
Volume96
Explosiveness34
Consistency27
Receiving36

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency27th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.20 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.73 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UConn (SP+ -26).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Troy	W56-20	2.6	14	56	4.0	1	1	2	0	-0.04
2	vsUConn	W62-7	-26.4	11	115	10.5	2	1	3	0	0.73
3	@Oklahoma State	L21-44	13.8	14	50	3.6	0	1	5	0	-0.24
5	@Wyoming	W34-14	1.9	20	57	2.8	1	3	15	0	-0.19
6	vsSan Diego State	L13-19	6.0	25	66	2.6	2	1	9	0	0.01
7	@Nevada	W31-27	-0.5	24	69	2.9	0	4	28	0	-0.16
8	vsColorado State	W56-28	-10.3	20	85	4.3	1	2	4	0	—
9	@Air Force	W48-38	-1.8	22	136	6.2	1	—	—	—	0.50
10	vsBYU	W21-16	6.2	25	89	3.6	2	5	40	0	0.18
11	vsFresno State	W24-17	17.4	30	144	4.8	2	3	15	0	0.22
12	@New Mexico	W45-14	-9.5	20	145	7.3	1	3	40	0	0.39
13	vsUtah State	W33-24	14.2	37	200	5.4	3	3	12	0	-0.01
14	vsFresno State	L16-19	17.4	40	200	5.0	1	—	—	—	0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

33.7%

Passing plays

6.6%

Rushing plays

61.7%

Standard downs

41.0%

Passing downs

17.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.03
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.09 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Boise State	1.4	0.220	—	49.3
2018	Boise State	2.8	0.260	+0.04	77.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.