#22Alexander Mattison

RB·Boise State·2018 20171.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Alexander Mattison is a 2-year Committee Back for Boise State. Alexander's 2017 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 241 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Alexander Mattison's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1086 Rush yards12 Rush TD212 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

28 Receptions284 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency3
Volume71
Explosiveness42
Consistency0
Receiving56

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.24 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.61 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Colorado State (SP+ 4).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Donnel Pumphrey	San Diego State	2016	344	0.320	4.2	110.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsTroy	W24-13	1.6	13	82	6.3	1	1	16	0	-0.28
2	@Washington State	L44-47	8.6	14	63	4.5	1	3	12	0	0.04
3	vsNew Mexico	W28-14	-12.4	6	10	1.7	0	1	9	0	-0.29
4	vsVirginia	L23-42	0.8	7	11	1.6	0	2	16	0	-0.08
6	@BYU	W24-7	-7.4	29	118	4.1	2	2	15	0	-0.01
7	@San Diego State	W31-14	4.5	23	128	5.6	1	1	9	0	0.19
8	vsWyoming	W24-14	-2.5	17	91	5.4	0	4	41	0	-0.04
9	@Utah State	W41-14	-3.3	19	110	5.8	0	3	28	1	0.32
10	vsNevada	W41-14	-16.4	12	64	5.3	2	1	14	0	0.41
11	@Colorado State	W59-52	3.9	23	242	10.5	3	3	44	0	0.61
12	vsAir Force	W44-19	-11.0	17	42	2.5	0	2	38	0	-0.17
13	@Fresno State	L17-28	-2.7	15	63	4.2	1	3	37	0	0.13
14	vsFresno State	W17-14	-2.7	14	50	3.6	1	2	5	0	-0.14
1	vsOregon	W38-28	9.1	3	12	4.0	0	—	—	—	0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

24.8%

Passing plays

7.6%

Rushing plays

41.9%

Standard downs

30.1%

Passing downs

14.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.06
Passing downs: 0.19
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Boise State	1.4	0.220	—	49.3
2018	Boise State	2.8	0.260	+0.04	77.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.