#46Alex Tecza

RB·Navy·20251.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Alex Tecza is a Pass-Catching Back for Navy. Alex's 2025 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 177 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Alex Tecza's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

902 Rush yards10 Rush TD158 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

13 Receptions125 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency48
Volume61
Explosiveness54
Consistency65
Receiving87

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency65th %ile · average

Key findings

▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs South Florida (SP+ 12).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsVMI	W52-7	—	15	89	5.9	1	1	10	0	0.47
2	vsUAB	W38-24	-15.8	15	111	7.4	1	1	-1	0	0.45
3	@Tulsa	W42-23	-10.0	15	72	4.8	2	—	—	—	0.41
5	vsRice	W21-13	-14.8	11	104	9.5	0	3	53	0	0.72
6	vsAir Force	W34-31	-3.2	1	3	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.25
7	@Temple	W32-31	-5.1	7	30	4.3	1	1	9	0	0.30
9	vsFlorida Atlantic	W42-32	-8.7	16	55	3.4	1	1	18	0	0.19
10	@North Texas	L17-31	13.8	10	59	5.9	0	2	12	0	0.45
11	@Notre Dame	L10-49	24.4	5	20	4.0	0	1	2	0	-0.37
12	vsSouth Florida	W41-38	11.6	12	126	10.5	1	1	14	1	0.82
14	@Memphis	W28-17	7.6	26	103	4.0	2	1	6	0	0.17
16	vsArmy	W17-16	0.8	9	50	5.6	0	—	—	—	0.10
20	vsCincinnati	W35-13	4.5	16	80	5.0	1	1	2	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.2%

Passing plays

10.2%

Rushing plays

24.9%

Standard downs

22.8%

Passing downs

15.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.68
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.69 / 0.31

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.