Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators
TV DSN, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Red Wings
to win
58%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.496vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT-.060vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DET-.027vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersRed Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DET Todd McLellan · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).