Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars
TV Prime Video, CHSN·American Airlines Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
39%Blackhawks
to win
61%
Stars
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.463vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL-.223vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL-.081vs.109GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DAL-.612vs.3905v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DALDAL at home
- Back-to-backfavors CHIDAL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersBlackhawks
Spencer Knight+0.06 GSAx/6057% to start152 career GP
Arvid Soderblom-0.26 GSAx/6043% to start112 career GP
Stars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CHI Jeff Blashill · DAL Glen Gulutzan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
P. Kane41
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).