Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins
TV ABC, SN360·TD Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
50%Lightning
to win
50%
Bruins
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.503win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs-.0585v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BOS.165vs.201GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BOS.294vs.6625v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BOSBOS at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Bruins
Jeremy Swayman+0.20 GSAx/6099% to start271 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · BOS Marco Sturm
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130
D. Pastrnak100 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).