Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights
TV SCRIPPS, SNW·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Oilers
to win
58%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors VGK.504vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.040vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors EDM.037vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK.475vs.8215v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersOilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: EDM Mike Babcock · VGK Ryan Craig
Leaders
vs- Points
C. McDavid138 - Goals
M. Stone28 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).