Capitals at Flyers — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Capitals at Flyers

Washington Capitals(43-30-9)

Philadelphia Flyers(43-27-12)

Thu, Apr 1, 7:30 PM EDTTV TNT, truTV·Xfinity Mobile Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

48%

Capitals

to win

52%

Flyers

Expected goals: 2.9–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH
.516vs.495win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PHI
.013vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH
.165vs.010GSAx / 60
Home icefavors PHI
PHI at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Capitals

Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/60
57% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/60
40% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/60
2% to start5 career GP

Flyers

Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/60
54% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/60
46% to start131 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · PHI Rick Tocchet

Leaders

vs

A. Tuch
66
Points
T. Konecny
68
A. Tuch
33
Goals
O. Tippett
28
D. Strome
39
Assists
T. Konecny
41

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.1815th
Goals for / game: 21st2.93; 2.907th
Goals against / game: 9th2.91; 17.8%25th
Power play: 32nd15.7%; 80.1%14th
Penalty kill: 22nd77.6%; 49.3%20th
Faceoffs: 18th49.5%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 28@
Nov 25@
Apr 1@this game
Apr 10@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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