Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers
TV SCRIPPS, TSN4·Amerant Bank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Maple Leafs
to win
58%
Panthers
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors FLA.479vs.492win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors FLA-.113vs-.0145v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.046GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors FLA-.105vs.2275v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors FLAFLA at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Panthers
Jacob Markstrom-0.04 GSAx/6075% to start608 career GP
Akira Schmid-0.08 GSAx/6025% to start92 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · FLA Paul Maurice
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).