Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars
TV KDFW 4, Prime Video·American Airlines Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
38%Flames
to win
62%
Stars
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.481vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL-.127vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL.016vs.109GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DAL-.091vs.3905v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DALDAL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Stars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · DAL Glen Gulutzan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
M. Frost22 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).