Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, TSN4·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
37%Maple Leafs
to win
63%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.479vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL-.113vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.052vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).