Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks
TV ALT, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose
Our win probability
and the three reasons
59%Avalanche
to win
41%
Sharks
- Expected goals
- 3.3–2.7
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs-.1145v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs-.137GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors COL.337vs.0775v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors SJSSJS at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Sharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · SJS Ryan Warsofsky
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).