Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres
TV MSG-B, TSN4·KeyBank Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
38%Maple Leafs
to win
62%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.479vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF-.113vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF-.105vs.7255v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).