Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins
TV NESN, TSN5·TD Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Senators
to win
56%
Bruins
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.515vs.503win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs-.0585v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BOS-.066vs.201GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BOS.609vs.6625v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BOSBOS at home
- Back-to-backfavors OTTOTT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Bruins
Jeremy Swayman+0.20 GSAx/6099% to start271 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · BOS Marco Sturm
Leaders
vs- Points
D. Pastrnak100 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).