Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens
TV SN+, TVAS·Centre Bell
Our win probability
and the three reasons
41%Maple Leafs
to win
59%
Canadiens
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.479vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MTL-.113vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.052vs.129GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL-.105vs.4315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MTLMTL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Canadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · MTL Martin St. Louis
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Suzuki101 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).