Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators
TV The Spot, SNE·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Lightning
to win
51%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).