Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers
TV MSGSN, TSN5·Madison Square Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
51%Senators
to win
49%
Rangers
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.515vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYR-.066vs.112GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors NYRNYR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6058% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · NYR Mike Sullivan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).