Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs
TV SN·Scotiabank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
39%Canucks
to win
61%
Maple Leafs
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TOR.439vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TOR-.225vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR-.089vs.052GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TOR-1.04vs-.1055v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TORTOR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanucks
Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/6042% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/6041% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/6010% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/608% to start23 career GP
Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VAN Manny Malhotra · TOR Jim Hiller
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.5630th
- Goals for / game
- 16th3.07
- 3.8332nd
- Goals against / game
- 31st3.60
- 21.8%14th
- Power play
- 15th21.3%
- 71.5%32nd
- Penalty kill
- 8th81.2%
- 49.3%22nd
- Faceoffs
- 3rd54.2%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).