New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, MSGSN·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
41%Devils
to win
59%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.485vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL-.033vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL-.029vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TBL.249vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersDevils
Jake Allen0.00 GSAx/6051% to start526 career GP
David Rittich-0.08 GSAx/6038% to start264 career GP
Nico Daws-0.03 GSAx/6011% to start55 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NJD Sheldon Keefe · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).