Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals
TV MNMT, SN·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
39%Flames
to win
61%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.481vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH-.127vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.016vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors WSH-.091vs.3555v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · WSH Spencer Carbery
Leaders
vs
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.5432nd
- Goals for / game
- 15th3.18
- 3.1221st
- Goals against / game
- 7th2.90
- 16.2%31st
- Power play
- 25th17.8%
- 80.4%12th
- Penalty kill
- 14th80.1%
- 49.3%21st
- Faceoffs
- 20th49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).