Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres
TV MSG-B, SNP·KeyBank Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
31%Canucks
to win
69%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 2.4–3.6
- Goes to overtime
- 20%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.439vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF-.225vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BUF-.089vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF-1.04vs.7255v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanucks
Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/6042% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/6041% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/6010% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/608% to start23 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VAN Manny Malhotra · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.5630th
- Goals for / game
- 5th3.45
- 3.8332nd
- Goals against / game
- 10th2.93
- 21.8%14th
- Power play
- 21st19.5%
- 71.5%32nd
- Penalty kill
- 4th81.9%
- 49.3%22nd
- Faceoffs
- 32nd45.9%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).