Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators
TV MSG-B, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
47%Sabres
to win
53%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.535vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.045vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BUF-.006vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.725vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
- Back-to-backfavors BUFBUF and OTT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).