Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets
TV MNMT, TSN3·Canada Life Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Capitals
to win
51%
Jets
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.516vs.491win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH.013vs-.0485v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.165vs.117GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors WPGWPG at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCapitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
Jets
Connor Hellebuyck+0.18 GSAx/6057% to start683 career GP
Stuart Skinner+0.04 GSAx/6043% to start277 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WSH Spencer Carbery · WPG Scott Arniel
Leaders
vs- Points
A. Tuch66
M. Scheifele103 - GoalsA. Tuch33
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.1815th
- Goals for / game
- 25th2.79
- 2.907th
- Goals against / game
- 21st3.12
- 17.8%25th
- Power play
- 24th18.5%
- 80.1%14th
- Penalty kill
- 21st77.6%
- 49.3%20th
- Faceoffs
- 9th51.1%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).