Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers
TV Prime Video, NBCSP·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Stars
to win
51%
Flyers
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.527vs.495win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.038vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL.109vs.010GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PHI.390vs.4655v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PHIPHI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Flyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · PHI Rick Tocchet
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.339th
- Goals for / game
- 21st2.93
- 2.712nd
- Goals against / game
- 9th2.91
- 28.6%2nd
- Power play
- 32nd15.7%
- 80.3%13th
- Penalty kill
- 22nd77.6%
- 51.6%7th
- Faceoffs
- 18th49.5%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).