San Jose Sharks at Philadelphia Flyers
TV NBCSP, NBCSCA·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
47%Sharks
to win
53%
Flyers
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PHI.479vs.495win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PHI-.114vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors PHI-.137vs.010GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors PHIPHI at home
- Back-to-backfavors SJSPHI played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Flyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · PHI Rick Tocchet
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0417th
- Goals for / game
- 21st2.93
- 3.5430th
- Goals against / game
- 9th2.91
- 21.2%16th
- Power play
- 32nd15.7%
- 76.4%26th
- Penalty kill
- 22nd77.6%
- 47.8%26th
- Faceoffs
- 18th49.5%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).