Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins
TV SN-PIT, TVAS·PPG Paints Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
38%Maple Leafs
to win
62%
Penguins
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PIT.479vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT-.113vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.237GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT-.105vs1.115v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PITPIT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Penguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · PIT Dan Muse
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).