Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers
TV TNT, truTV·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Sabres
to win
51%
Flyers
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.535vs.495win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF.045vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven-.006vs.010GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.725vs.4655v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PHIPHI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
Flyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · PHI Rick Tocchet
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).