San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, NBCSCA·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
36%Sharks
to win
64%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.479vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL-.114vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL-.137vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0417th
- Goals for / game
- 4th3.49
- 3.5430th
- Goals against / game
- 3rd2.79
- 21.2%16th
- Power play
- 17th20.7%
- 76.4%26th
- Penalty kill
- 3rd82.6%
- 47.8%26th
- Faceoffs
- 28th47.4%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).