Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers
TV NBCSP, TSN2·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Canadiens
to win
55%
Flyers
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.515vs.495win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PHI-.072vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.129vs.010GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors PHIPHI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
Flyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · PHI Rick Tocchet
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Suzuki101 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).