Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks
TV ALT, KTVD·Rogers Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
66%Avalanche
to win
34%
Canucks
- Expected goals
- 3.5–2.5
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.439win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs-.2255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs-.089GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors COL.337vs-1.045v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VANVAN at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Canucks
Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/6042% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/6041% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/6010% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/608% to start23 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · VAN Manny Malhotra
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).