Islanders at Canadiens — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Islanders at Canadiens

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Montréal Canadiens(48-24-10)

Sat, Feb 20, 7:00 PM ESTTV MSGSN, SNE·Centre Bell

Our win probability

and the three reasons

45%

Islanders

to win

55%

Canadiens

Expected goals: 2.9–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL
.488vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signaleven
-.069vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL
.078vs.129GSAx / 60
Home icefavors MTL
MTL at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

Canadiens

Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/60
62% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/60
38% to start81 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · MTL Martin St. Louis

Leaders

vs

M. Schaefer
59
Points
N. Suzuki
101
B. Horvat
31
Goals
C. Caufield
51
M. Schaefer
36
Assists
N. Suzuki
72

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.7925th
Goals for / game: 7th3.40; 2.885th
Goals against / game: 16th3.06; 16.5%30th
Power play: 10th23.1%; 80.8%10th
Penalty kill: 18th78.2%; 52.6%5th
Faceoffs: 11th51.0%

Season series

first meeting

Feb 20@this game
Mar 9@
Apr 4@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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