San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals
TV NBCSCA, MNMT·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
39%Sharks
to win
61%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.479vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WSH-.114vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH-.137vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · WSH Spencer Carbery
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115
A. Tuch66 - GoalsA. Tuch33
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0417th
- Goals for / game
- 15th3.18
- 3.5430th
- Goals against / game
- 7th2.90
- 21.2%16th
- Power play
- 25th17.8%
- 76.4%26th
- Penalty kill
- 14th80.1%
- 47.8%26th
- Faceoffs
- 20th49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).