Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars
TV MINNHL, KDFW 4·American Airlines Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
39%Wild
to win
61%
Stars
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.511vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.010vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL-.090vs.109GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DAL.331vs.3905v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DALDAL at home
- Back-to-backfavors MINMIN played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersWild
Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/6060% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/6040% to start50 career GP
Stars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MIN John Hynes · DAL Glen Gulutzan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).