Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers
TV MSG-B, MSGSN·Madison Square Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
56%Sabres
to win
44%
Rangers
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.535vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF.045vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYR-.006vs.114GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.725vs.3305v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYRNYR at home
- Back-to-backfavors BUFNYR played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · NYR Mike Sullivan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).