New York Rangers at Montréal Canadiens
TV MSG, TSN2·Centre Bell
Our win probability
and the three reasons
52%Rangers
to win
48%
Canadiens
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.476vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors NYR-.057vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.112vs.129GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors MTLMTL at home
- Back-to-backfavors NYRMTL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersRangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6058% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
Canadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYR Mike Sullivan · MTL Martin St. Louis
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Suzuki101 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).