Islanders at Panthers — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Islanders at Panthers

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Florida Panthers(40-38-4)

Mon, Feb 1, 2:00 PM ESTTV MSGSN, SCRIPPS·Amerant Bank Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

44%

Islanders

to win

56%

Panthers

Expected goals: 2.8–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signaleven
.488vs.492win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors FLA
-.069vs-.0145v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI
.078vs-.046GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors FLA
-.034vs.2275v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors FLA
FLA at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

Panthers

Jacob Markstrom-0.04 GSAx/60
75% to start608 career GP
Akira Schmid-0.08 GSAx/60
25% to start92 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · FLA Paul Maurice

Leaders

vs

M. Schaefer
59
Points
S. Reinhart
61
B. Horvat
31
Goals
S. Reinhart
29
M. Schaefer
36
Assists
B. Tkachuk
37

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.7925th
Goals for / game: 18th3.00; 2.885th
Goals against / game: 28th3.34; 16.5%30th
Power play: 19th19.5%; 80.8%10th
Penalty kill: 9th81.0%; 52.6%5th
Faceoffs: 29th46.8%

Season series

first meeting

Dec 1@
Feb 1@this game
Mar 12@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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